In a significant blow to Democrats, Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy has taken a 6-point lead over incumbent Democrat Jon Tester in the closely watched Montana Senate race. A recent AARP poll, conducted between August 25-29, shows Sheehy with 51% support from likely voters, compared to Tester's 45%. The poll, released on September 5, highlights a growing challenge for Tester as the two-term incumbent faces strong headwinds in the Republican-leaning state.
Sheehy, a decorated Navy SEAL veteran, has seen his support surge thanks to a combination of Trump’s endorsement and Sheehy’s appeal to Montana’s large conservative base. Notably, Sheehy has garnered strong backing from voters aged 50 and older, a crucial demographic that comprises 65% of Montana's electorate. These older voters are particularly concerned about issues like Social Security, Medicare, and inflation, which have driven many to support Sheehy over Tester.
Proud Dad. Bruce was the mutton busting champion at the White Sulphur Springs Labor Day Rodeo! Bringing home the buckle!! pic.twitter.com/68AAbfn7sz
— Tim Sheehy (@SheehyforMT) September 3, 2024
Tester, a centrist Democrat who has managed to hold onto his seat in a red state since 2006, faces an uphill battle. While he has emphasized his independence from President Biden in campaign ads, his association with the national Democratic agenda and his voting record have made him vulnerable to attacks from Sheehy’s campaign. Sheehy’s team has aggressively tied Tester to President Biden, accusing him of supporting "reckless spending, record inflation, and open borders." These charges appear to have resonated with Montana voters, as many are looking for change in Washington.
The poll also indicates that Sheehy's advantage increases in a four-way race, where Libertarian candidate Sid Daoud and Green Party candidate Michael Downey pull a combined 5% of the vote. In this scenario, Sheehy holds a commanding 49% to Tester's 41%, widening his lead to 8 points.
What SAY You #TimSheehy?? pic.twitter.com/7Zhun6vgZA
— Biyokak Tohbi' – Eddy White 🇺🇸 (@forever1sg) September 4, 2024
With Republicans already eyeing Montana as a prime opportunity to flip a Senate seat, the stakes are high. Tester’s defeat could be pivotal in determining which party controls the Senate after the 2024 elections. For Democrats, losing Tester’s seat would complicate their path to maintaining their slim Senate majority, especially as other vulnerable Democrats face tough reelection battles.
Sheehy’s rise has not been without challenges. Initially facing a potential primary battle with Montana Rep. Matt Rosendale, Sheehy secured Trump’s endorsement, effectively unifying Republican support. Trump’s endorsement, along with Sheehy’s military background and successful business ventures, has helped him solidify his standing among the state’s conservative voters.
Despite the tough poll numbers, Tester’s campaign remains focused on touting his record of working with both parties and addressing the needs of Montana voters. His campaign has been keen to highlight his efforts to secure funding for veterans, improve infrastructure, and protect Social Security. Still, as polls tighten and Sheehy gains momentum, Tester’s path to reelection is growing more uncertain.
With just months to go until the November election, this poll is an ominous sign for Democrats hoping to retain control of the Senate. As older voters rally around Sheehy and inflation continues to dominate headlines, Tester will need a substantial shift in momentum to close the gap and secure another term.
